Modeling data and R code for Chrysodeixis chalcites ecological niche

The golden twin-spot moth, Chrysodeixis chalcites Esper (Lepidoptera:
Noctuidae), is a polyphagous, polyvoltine crop pest occurring natively
from northern Europe to Mediterranean Africa and the Canary Islands.
Larvae feed on a wide variety of naturally occurring plants as well as
soybean and other legume crops, short staple cotton, tomato, potato,
peppers, tobacco, and banana. Chrysodeixis chalcites has been recorded in
agricultural lands in the Ontario peninsula in eastern Canada and in
northern counties of Indiana, USA. Given the strong potential for C.
chalcites to invade USA crop lands, it is important to identify
environments most likely to sustain growing populations of this pest.
Though C. chalcites is native to Europe and North Africa, it has invaded
sub-Saharan Africa. Using occurrence data form the native and invaded
ranges, and environmental predictors including bioclimatic conditions and
human disturbance, we trained three ecological niche models to estimate an
ensemble prediction of environmental suitability in the contiguous US.
Because human impact is potentially a confounding predictor, models were
trained both with and without it. High environmental suitability was
projected for the Atlantic coast from New England to Florida, the Gulf
coast, the lower Midwest, and the Pacific coast and Central Valley of
California.

金双斑夜蛾（*Chrysodeixis chalcites* Esper，鳞翅目：夜蛾科）是一种多食性、多化性农作物害虫，原生分布范围涵盖北欧至地中海沿岸非洲地区及加那利群岛。其幼虫可取食多种野生植物，同时为害大豆及其他豆科作物、短绒棉、番茄、马铃薯、辣椒、烟草与香蕉。目前已在加拿大东部安大略半岛以及美国印第安纳州北部郡县的农田中记录到该虫。鉴于金双斑夜蛾具备极强的入侵美国农田的潜力，明确最适宜其种群持续扩张的环境类型至关重要。尽管该虫原产于欧洲与北非，但现已入侵撒哈拉以南非洲地区。本研究利用原生与入侵分布区的发生数据，结合生物气候条件与人类活动干扰等环境预测因子，构建了3种生态位模型，以估算美国本土范围内的环境适宜性集成预测结果。由于人类活动影响可能成为混淆性预测因子，本研究分别纳入与排除该因子开展模型训练。模型预测结果显示，从新英格兰至佛罗里达的大西洋沿岸、墨西哥湾沿岸、中西部南部地区，以及加利福尼亚州太平洋沿岸与中央谷地，均具备较高的环境适宜性。