Dependency ratio in China 2013-2023

According to the Seventh National Chinese Population Census, the age dependency ratio in China increased to 46.5 percent in 2023. This meant that for every 100 people of working age, more than 46 seniors and children had to be supported. Age dependency ratioThe age dependency ratio denotes the relationship between economically dependent age groups (people who are either too old or too young to work) to those of working age. Those who are defined as being able to work, according to the source, are people between the ages of 15 and 64. The dependency ratio indicates how great a burden is placed on those of working age by those of non-working age. In international comparison, China has a relatively low age dependency ratio, when compared to age dependency in G20 countries or other countries in the Asia Pacific region. Development in ChinaIn the past two decades, China’s economy has profited from a relatively low dependency ratio. In combination with a growing working age population, these were the two main demographic causes for China’s large and cheap labor force. However, the dependency ratio has been falling since the 1970s, mainly because of lower birth rates and a resulting decrease of child dependency. This led the age dependency ratio to reach a historic low between 2005 and 2017, when it fell to levels below 40 percent. A turning point had been reached around the year 2010, when the effects of declining child dependency were neutralized by growing old-age dependency. This rapid aging of the population is the other side of the coin of decades of low birth rates, which will pose great challenges to Chinese society in the future.

根据第七次全国人口普查数据，截至2023年，我国的老龄化依赖比上升至46.5%。这意味着每100名劳动年龄人口中，需抚养的老年人和儿童人数超过46人。所谓老龄化依赖比，即指经济依赖年龄群体（指那些年长或年幼无法工作的人群）与劳动年龄人口之间的关系。根据数据来源，具有工作能力的人群界定为15至64岁之间的人。依赖比揭示了非劳动年龄人口对劳动年龄人口造成的负担程度。在国际比较中，我国老龄化依赖比相对较低，与G20国家或其他亚太地区国家的老龄化依赖比相比。过去二十年，我国经济得益于较低的老龄化依赖比。结合不断增长的劳动年龄人口，这两大人口学因素是构成我国庞大且低成本劳动力队伍的主要原因。然而，自20世纪70年代以来，老龄化依赖比一直在下降，这主要归因于较低的生育率和由此导致的儿童依赖比减少。这导致老龄化依赖比在2005年至2017年间达到历史低点，降至40%以下。大约在2010年左右，儿童依赖比下降的效应被不断增长的老龄化依赖比所抵消。这种人口的快速老龄化是数十年低生育率的另一面，未来将对我国社会构成巨大挑战。