Data for: Exit polls, turnout, and bandwagon voting: Evidence from a natural experiment

Abstract of associated article: We exploit a voting reform in France to estimate the causal effect of exit poll information on turnout and bandwagon voting. Before the change in legislation, individuals in some French overseas territories voted after the election result had already been made public via exit poll information from mainland France. We estimate that knowing the exit poll information decreases voter turnout by about 11 percentage points. Our study is the first clean empirical design outside of the laboratory to demonstrate the effect of such knowledge on voter turnout. Furthermore, we find that exit poll information significantly increases bandwagon voting; that is, voters who choose to turn out are more likely to vote for the expected winner.

相关论文摘要：本研究依托法国一项选举改革，旨在估算出口民调(exit poll)信息对选民投票率以及随大流投票(bandwagon voting)的因果效应。在该立法修订实施前，法国部分海外领地的选民进行投票时，法国本土的出口民调信息已提前公布了选举结果。经估算，获知出口民调信息会使选民投票率降低约11个百分点。本研究是首个在非实验室场景下开展的严谨实证研究，证实了此类信息对选民投票率的影响。此外，研究发现出口民调信息会显著提升随大流投票行为：即参与投票的选民更倾向于支持预期中的获胜者。