Replication Data for: Demographics, Exchange Rate Regimes, and Industrial Policy — A Three-Way Decomposition

Replication package for 'Demographics, Exchange Rate Regimes, and Industrial Policy: A Three-Way Decomposition' by Brian Peters (2026). Combines three dimensions — demographic structure, exchange rate regime rigidity, and industrial policy intensity — into a single empirical framework. Uses a 140-country panel with continuous ERS index and manufacturing value added as industrial policy proxy. Key finding: the triple interaction Z₁ × ERS × Manufacturing VA is significant — aging countries with rigid exchange rates and large manufacturing sectors generate the largest current account surpluses. China case study decomposes the surplus into demographic, regime, and industrial policy contributions with counterfactual scenarios. Includes heterogeneity analysis, projections through 2040, and full robustness battery.