Trade liberalization and industry: what to expect and what we have been getting

ABSTRACT The aim of this paper is to assess the impact of trade liberalization on the Brazilian manufacturing industry over the 1989-96 period. To this end, a series of indicators was built which shed light on the technical efficiency and allocational effects of the liberalization. The results obtained suggest that the impacts were, in general, positive and consistent with both predictions of the literature of the international trade and the pattern of Brazil’s industrialization. Yet, they also point to a number of challenges to be faced by State, particularly, with regard to the imperfections that affect international trade in manufacturing and that threaten the gains from trade.

摘要 本文旨在评估1989至1996年间贸易自由化对巴西制造业的影响。为此，本文构建了一系列指标，用以阐明贸易自由化带来的技术效率与配置效应。研究结果显示，整体而言该影响为正向，且既符合国际贸易领域现有文献的理论预测，也契合巴西工业化的发展模式。但同时，研究结果也指出了政府面临的多项挑战，尤其是针对影响制造业国际贸易、并威胁贸易获益的各类不完善因素。