Wildfire Exposure: Anchorage and Fairbanks, Alaska and Whitehorse, Yukon 1984-2054

We modified an existing approach to assess decadal wildfire hazards based primarily on ember dispersal and wildfire proximity, referencing landscape changes from 1984 through 2014. Our modifications created a categorial flammability hazard scheme, rather than dichotomous, and the integration of wildfire exposure results across spatial scales. We used remote sensed land cover from four decadal points to create flammability hazard and wildfire exposure maps for three arctic communities (Anchorage and Fairbanks, Alaska and Whitehorse, Yukon). Within the Fairbanks study area, we compared 2014 flammability hazard, wildfire exposure, and FlamMap burn probabilities among burned (2014-2021) and unburned areas. Exposure values were greater in burned than unburned, unlike burn probabilities.

本研究对现有方法进行改进，以主要基于余烬扩散与野火邻近度的方式评估十年尺度野火风险，研究参考了1984年至2014年的景观变化情况。本次改进构建了分类式可燃性风险分级方案（而非二分法方案），并实现了跨空间尺度野火暴露评估结果的整合。本研究使用四个十年时间节点的遥感土地覆盖数据，为三座北极城镇（阿拉斯加州安克雷奇、费尔班克斯，以及育空地区怀特霍斯）绘制了可燃性风险与野火暴露分布图。在费尔班克斯研究区内，我们对比了2014年的可燃性风险、野火暴露情况，以及FlamMap燃烧概率在2014-2021年过火区域与未过火区域间的差异。与燃烧概率不同，过火区域的暴露值高于未过火区域。