STATISTICAL ANALYSIS AND ECONOMIC IMPACT OF SOCIAL PROGRAMMES AND PREFERENTIAL LENDING PRACTICES IMPLEMENTED BY COMMERCIAL BANKS

This article presents a comprehensive statistical analysis and economic impact assessment of social programmes and preferential lending practices implemented by commercial banks in Uzbekistan. Drawing on data from the Central Bank of Uzbekistan, the Agency of Statistics, and the Ministry of Poverty Reduction and Employment, the study quantifies the volume, structure, and outreach dynamics of bank-administered social programmes over the period 2019–2023. The article identifies three principal channels through which preferential lending generates economic impact: household income augmentation, employment creation, and the reduction of extreme poverty incidence among targeted beneficiaries. A regression-based analysis confirms a statistically significant positive association between the volume of subsidised credit and the number of newly created jobs at the regional level. SWOT analysis reveals that while the mahalla institutional framework constitutes a distinctive comparative advantage for Uzbekistan’s social banking model, deficiencies in monitoring infrastructure and uneven regional bank penetration constrain overall programme effectiveness. The findings support policy recommendations directed at standardising impact measurement, extending preferential product lines to women and youth, and integrating digital credit-scoring technologies to reduce transaction costs for the most vulnerable households.