Data for: The global limits of sustainable irrigation as an adaptation to climate change

This repository provides the datasets supporting the paper: “The global limits of sustainable irrigation as an adaptation to climate change.” Here is the dataset supporting the analysis of irrigation, agricultural production, water use, and trade under climate change scenarios using the Global Biosphere Management Model (GLOBIOM). The dataset is designed to assess the role and limits of irrigation as an adaptation to climate change, providing spatially explicit and aggregated outputs across multiple climate forcing pathways. The dataset combines model outputs from an integrated modelling framework linking agricultural production, hydrology, land use, and international trade. It includes projections up to 2050 under a consistent socioeconomic pathway (SSP2) and multiple climate scenarios derived from CMIP6 projections. The dataset enables the evaluation of irrigation dynamics, water availability constraints, and trade-mediated water flows across regions based on 2 types of datasets: Spatial explicit results: the spatial component of the dataset is provided at the native GLOBIOM resolution, where each spatial unit represents a grid cell characterized by homogeneous biophysical conditions (e.g., soil, slope, and climate). These spatial units are linked to a shapefile through a unique identifier (LUID), allowing the mapping of model outputs.The repository contains spatially explicit results for four main domains: cropland area, agricultural production, crop yields, and irrigation water withdrawals. These outputs are provided as separate CSV files, each containing harmonized data structures. Across all files, each row represents a unique combination of spatial unit, scenario, variable, and year, including the associated model output value. Macroregional results: aggregate model outputs across world regions. These datasets provide indicators related to trade flows and water use, including virtual water trade and associated metrics, allowing the analysis of interregional dependencies and water transfers embedded in agricultural trade. The main CSV files contain all input-derived and model-generated outputs used in the analysis. Each row corresponds to a unique observation defined by a spatial or regional unit, a scenario combination (climate model and forcing pathway), and a specific variable. The spatial reference layer (provided as a shapefile) contains the geometries of the GLOBIOM spatial units and enables the visualization and mapping of all spatial results by linking to the tabular data through the spatial unit identifier. Data description GLOBIOM_spatial_results variable Rainfed cropland area Irrigated cropland area Rainfed production Irrigated production Rainfed yield Irrigated yield Irrigation Water Withdrawal unit 1000 ha 1000 t t/ha km3 country Multiple country names (all countries represented in GLOBIOM spatial units) spatial_unit_id Unique numeric identifiers (LUID) item Crop aggregated gcm GCM mean ensemble GFDL-ESM4 IPSL-CM6A-LR MPI-ESM1-2-HR MRI-ESM2-0 UKESM1-0-LL rcp RCP 2.6 RCP 7.0 RCP 8.5 ssp SSP2 year 2050 value Continuous numeric values MacroRegions_GLOBIOM_results variable Cropland area Rainfed cropland area Irrigated cropland area Total crop production Average crop yield Imports of crop products Exports of crop products Grereenhouse gas emissions Rainfed crop yield Irrigated crop yield Exogenous total yield Exogenous irrigated yield Exogenous rainfed yield Irrigation Water Withdrawal Undernourished population Value added from agriculture Blue water efficiency Virtual water content Irrigated crop production Rainfed crop production unit 1000 ha 1000 t t/ha km3 Mt CO2eq/yr km3 Mn USD 2000 km3/1000 t t/ha km3 item Crop aggregated Total Land use change regions World Latin America and the Caribbean North America Commonwealth of Independent States Sub-Saharan Africa Oceania Southwest Asia and North Africa European Economic Area Southeast Asia gcm GCM mean ensemble GFDL-ESM4 IPSL-CM6A-LR MPI-ESM1-2-HR MRI-ESM2-0 UKESM1-0-LL rcp RCP 2.6 RCP 7.0 RCP 8.5 ssp SSP2 year 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 value Continuous numeric values Code description This R script computes spatial suitability for irrigation expansion by integrating hydrological, agricultural, and infrastructure constraints. Non-agricultural water demand is smoothed using 10-year averages and combined with irrigation demand and surface water availability to estimate residual water available for irrigation (SWIRR). Spatial clustering of SWIRR is assessed using local Moran’s I (LISA) to identify areas of high water availability. These results are combined with crop-model outputs quantifying irrigation benefits and with data on existing irrigation infrastructure. Irrigation suitability (ECO_IREX) is defined where water availability is high, irrigation benefits are positive, and infrastructure exists, and is exported for use in GLOBIOM simulations.