Replication Data for: \"Does State Repression Spark Protests?\"

Does physical surveillance hinder or foster anti-regime resistance? A common view holds that surveillance prevents resistance by providing regimes with high-quality intelligence on dissident networks, and by instilling fear in citizens. We contrast this view using formerly classified data from Communist Poland. We show that communities exposed to secret police officers were more likely to organize protests, but also engaged in less sabotage. To ensure that the correlation is causal, we use an instrumental variable strategy, which exploits the exogenous assignment of Catholic “spy priests” to local communities. To make sense of the unexpected finding, we draw on qualitative interviews and archival sources. We document that Poland’s comprehensive use of surveillance created widespread anger as well as an incentive for citizens to reveal their true loyalties, thus facilitating anti-regime collective action. Once on the streets, protesters refrained from sabotage to signal their political motivation to bystanders and authorities alike.

身体监视究竟会阻碍还是助长反政权抵抗？主流观点认为，监视可通过为政权提供异见者网络的高质量情报，以及在公民中灌输恐惧心理来阻止抵抗行为。本研究借助波兰共产党执政时期的解密档案数据，对这一观点提出反驳。研究发现，暴露于秘密警察管控的社区不仅更易组织抗议活动，同时实施的破坏行为却更少。为确保观测到的相关性具有因果性，本文采用了工具变量法（instrumental variable strategy），利用天主教“间谍神父”被外部分配至地方社区的外生性特征进行识别。为合理解释这一意外发现，本文结合质性访谈与档案资料展开分析，结果表明波兰全面推行的监视体系不仅引发了广泛民愤，同时也促使公民表露真实立场，进而推动了反政权集体行动的开展。而抗议者在走上街头后，会刻意避免实施破坏行为，以此向旁观者与当局传递自身的政治动机。