Monte Carlo Model for ENFICC Estimation of Lead-cooled SMR in Colombia

This Python script performs a Monte Carlo simulation to estimate the Firm Energy for the Reliability Charge (ENFICC) of a 200 MW lead-cooled small modular reactor (SMR), based on the LFR-AS-200 design by Newcleo. The model evaluates hourly reactor availability over 10,000 yearly iterations, incorporating both scheduled maintenance and unplanned outages (SCRAM events), which are simulated as a Poisson process with variable duration. For each simulated year, the code calculates the monthly energy generation and extracts the 5th percentile across the distribution of results. The final ENFICC value is defined as the minimum 5th percentile energy among all months, in accordance with Colombian reliability regulation methodology. The output includes: Monthly 5th percentile energy values (in MWh), The final ENFICC value for the reactor, An optional CSV file with simulation results. This model supports energy system planners and regulators in quantifying the firm contribution of advanced SMR technologies to long-term reliability goals.