Replication Data for: Does Mainstream Populism Work? Populist Rhetoric and the Electoral Fortunes of Mainstream Parties

Much work is concerned with the effects of mainstream parties accommodating the positions of populist radical right parties. Little is known about the role of political rhetoric in mainstream party responses to radical right challengers though. This is a significant gap given the evident shifts in mainstream party discourse across European democracies. Using a pre-registered survey experiment in Germany, I analyse how voters react when mainstream parties engage in populist rhetoric and adopt radical right issue positions. Theoretically, I propose that voters, particularly those with populist attitudes, may use populist rhetoric as a heuristic when evaluating parties. I find that, in line with spatial theories of voting, voters penalize or reward mainstream parties based on their adoption of radical right positions, but that the use of populist rhetoric does not significantly impact voter evaluations. These findings demonstrate the relevance of programmatic party strategies in mainstream-challenger competition and cast doubt on the effectiveness of populist rhetoric.

现有诸多研究聚焦于主流政党迎合民粹主义激进右翼政党立场所产生的影响。然而，学界对于政治修辞在主流政党应对激进右翼挑战者时所发挥的作用却知之甚少。鉴于欧洲各民主国家的主流政党话语已出现显著转变，这一研究空白具有重要意义。本研究依托德国开展的一项预注册（pre-registered）调查实验，分析了当主流政党使用民粹主义修辞并采纳激进右翼议题立场时，选民会作出何种反应。从理论层面而言，本研究提出，选民——尤其是持民粹主义态度的选民——在评价政党时，或许会将民粹主义修辞作为一种认知启发式（heuristic）。研究结果显示，与空间投票理论（spatial theories of voting）的预期相符，选民会根据主流政党对激进右翼立场的采纳情况对其进行奖惩，但民粹主义修辞的使用并不会对选民的政党评价产生显著影响。这些研究结果证实了纲领性政党策略在主流政党与挑战者政党竞争中的重要性，并对民粹主义修辞的有效性提出了质疑。