Is Inflation Targeting destabilizing? Lessons from Latin America

ABSTRACT This paper argues that several aspects of the productive structure and the macroeconomic policies of Latin American countries, when combined with a Taylor Rule, may produce too much output volatility and a bias towards real exchange rate overvaluation. Relaying on a simple Aggregate Demand - Aggregate Supply model, we show that this is a likely outcome when: a) the real interest rate elasticity of demand is low; b) depreciations have strong contractionary effects; and c) the exchange rate pass-through is relatively large. These conditions imply that depreciations are contractionary and a have a strong effect on inflation.

摘要：本文论证，拉丁美洲国家的生产结构与宏观经济政策的若干特征，若与泰勒规则（Taylor Rule）相结合，可能会催生过度的产出波动，并引发实际汇率高估的偏向。基于简洁的总需求-总供给（Aggregate Demand - Aggregate Supply）模型，我们证明，当满足以下条件时，该结论极有可能成立：a）需求的实际利率弹性偏低；b）本币贬值具有显著的紧缩效应；c）汇率传递效应相对较强。上述条件意味着，本币贬值兼具紧缩性与对通胀的强劲影响。