Sustainability of student debt in demand-led macrodynamics

Abstract This paper analyzes the sustainability of student debt in a theoretical model in which economic activity is determined by aggregate effective demand. While most of the literature on this topic only considers the wage differentials among workers with distinct educational levels, we propose a formal methodology that considers the impact of this indebtedness on certain macroeconomic variables that affect the possibility of serving the outstanding debt, such as the rate of employment. We compare two forms of debt repayment, the first being similar to the “ Income-Driven Repayment Plans”, which have become common in the U.S. as of late, while, in the second, households’ marginal propensity to consume adapts, to some extent, to the debt service. Our results indicate that factors such as the distribution of income and marginal propensities to consume of different functional classes affect the macroeconomic conditions related to the sustainability of student debt.

摘要 本文基于总有效需求决定经济活动的理论模型，探讨学生债务的可持续性问题。当前该领域的绝大多数研究仅关注不同教育水平劳动者之间的薪资差距，而本文提出一套正式的分析框架，将学生债务对影响偿债能力的若干宏观经济变量的作用纳入考量，例如就业率。我们对比了两种债务偿还模式：第一种与近期在美国逐步普及的收入导向型还款计划（Income-Driven Repayment Plans）相似；第二种则允许家庭的边际消费倾向在一定程度上随偿债支出进行调整。研究结果显示，收入分配格局、不同职能群体的边际消费倾向等因素，均会对与学生债务可持续性相关的宏观经济条件产生影响。