Will There Be a Price War Between Russian Pipeline Gas & US LNG in Europe?

About the Project KAPSARC is analyzing the shifting dynamics of the global gas markets, which have turned upside down during the past five years. North America has emerged as a large potential future LNG exporter while gas demand growth has been slowing down as natural gas gets squeezed between coal and renewables. While the coming years will witness the fastest LNG export capacity expansion ever seen, many questions are raised on the next generation of LNG supply, the impact of low oil and gas prices on supply and demand patterns and how pricing and contractual structure may be affected by both the arrival of U.S. LNG on global gas markets and the desire of Asian buyers for cheaper gasKey PointsAround 150 mtpa of LNG export capacity will come to global gas markets over 2015-20. While Asia seems unlikely now to be able to absorb it all, Europe emerges as a residual market for flexible volumes. The question is, therefore, which outcome(s) in the global LNG market could set the stage for a battle for market share in the European gas market between LNG suppliers and the incumbent pipeline suppliers, most importantly Russia, and how that country could respond to the potential challenge of large quantities of LNG supplies flooding European gas markets? Russia’s gas export strategy in Europe so far has been based on value maximization rather than on protecting its market share. But if increasing LNG supply to Europe becomes an extended threat to Russia’s market share, it may change its position from reactive to proactive and attempt to defend it. Whether a confrontation between Russian gas and LNG takes place and how Russia could respond depends crucially on the build-up of total LNG trade and the appetite of China for LNG. Russia has the advantage of being a low cost producer with ample spare productive capacity and underutilized pipeline capacity to Europe. A low price environment (up to $40/bbl) would actually benefit Russia more than a higher price environment, from a market share perspective, as it can reduce its prices below the variable costs of U.S. LNG and can push U.S. volumes out of the European market. In a higher price environment, U.S. LNG would continue to flow. The competition between Russian gas and U.S. LNG in Europe is also about pricing models, driven on one hand by oil market fundamentals, with some influence from Europe spot markets, and on the other hand driven by the fundamentals of the U.S. gas market and the LNG trade. The geopolitical aspect is also important. While relations between Russia and Europe have become frosty, cheap and abundant Russian gas could potentially help mend commercial ties. However, the tensions between the U.S. and Russia have been increased by the Ukraine situation, the war in Syria and sanctions. The competition between U.S. LNG and Russian pipeline gas in Europe is about more than the pure commercial aspects and will be influenced by the geopolitical standoff of the two powers.

项目概况：KAPSARC（阿卜杜拉国王石油研究中心）正针对过去五年间发生翻天覆地变化的全球天然气市场动态展开分析。北美已成为极具潜力的未来液化天然气（Liquefied Natural Gas，缩写LNG）出口地区，而天然气需求增长正逐步放缓——因天然气在煤炭与可再生能源的双重挤压下处境艰难。尽管未来几年将迎来史上最快的LNG出口产能扩张浪潮，但诸多疑问仍有待解答：下一代LNG供应的前景如何？低油价与低气价将对供需格局产生何种影响？美国LNG进入全球天然气市场，以及亚洲买家寻求更廉价天然气的诉求，又将如何改变定价与契约结构？
核心要点：
2015至2020年间，全球将新增约1.5亿吨/年的LNG出口产能。尽管当前亚洲似乎无力完全消化这些产能，欧洲却成为承接灵活出货量的剩余市场。因此，核心问题在于：全球LNG市场的何种走向，将为LNG供应商与现有管道天然气供应商（尤以俄罗斯为代表）之间的欧洲天然气市场份额争夺战埋下伏笔？而俄罗斯又将如何应对大量LNG涌入欧洲天然气市场带来的潜在挑战？
迄今为止，俄罗斯在欧洲的天然气出口战略以价值最大化为核心，而非捍卫市场份额。但如果持续增长的欧洲LNG供应对俄罗斯的市场份额构成长期威胁，俄方可能会从被动应对转向主动防御，全力维护自身市场地位。
俄罗斯管道天然气与LNG之间是否会爆发竞争，以及俄罗斯的应对方式，在很大程度上取决于全球LNG贸易的扩张规模，以及中国对LNG的需求意愿。
俄罗斯具备低成本生产商的优势，拥有充足的闲置产能以及未充分利用的对欧管道输送能力。从市场份额角度来看，低油价环境（最高40美元/桶）实际上比高油价环境更有利于俄罗斯：俄方可以将供气价格降至美国LNG的可变成本以下，从而将美国LNG挤出欧洲市场。而在高油价环境下，美国LNG仍将持续涌入欧洲。
俄罗斯天然气与美国LNG在欧洲的竞争还涉及定价模式：一方面，定价受石油市场基本面影响，同时也受到欧洲现货市场的一定扰动；另一方面，定价则由美国天然气市场与LNG贸易的基本面所决定。
地缘政治因素同样不容忽视。尽管俄欧关系已趋于冷淡，但廉价且充足的俄罗斯天然气或有助于修复双方的商业联系。然而，乌克兰局势、叙利亚战争以及制裁措施，加剧了美俄之间的紧张关系。美国LNG与俄罗斯管道天然气在欧洲的竞争，早已超越纯粹的商业范畴，将受到两大强国的地缘政治对峙的影响。