Replication Data for: Elections, Right-wing Populism, and Political-Economic Polarization: The Role of Institutions and Political Outsiders

While there is little doubt that technological change is generating labor market polarization around the world, we know much less about its translation into partisan polarization. I explore the political polarization driven by the rise of right-wing populist parties and leaders throughout developed democracies. I build a theoretical model to explain how right-wing populists have attracted the votes of routine workers, workers exposed to automation risk, and previously loyal to mainstream left-wing parties, within both majoritarian multi-district and multiparty proportional systems. I empirically evaluate the theory, focusing primarily on the US and Germany, using individual vote-switching data and campaign messaging and targeting strategies inferred from the content of political speeches and party manifestos.

尽管技术变革在全球范围内催生劳动力市场极化(labor market polarization)已是不争的事实，但关于其如何转化为党派极化(partisan polarization)的相关议题，学界对此的认知仍相对不足。本研究聚焦于发达民主国家中右翼民粹主义政党与领袖崛起所驱动的政治极化现象。本研究构建了一套理论模型，用以阐释在多数制多选区选举制度(majoritarian multi-district system)与多党比例代表制(multiparty proportional system)两种选举框架下，右翼民粹主义势力如何吸引常规劳工、面临自动化风险(automation risk)的劳动者，以及此前曾效忠主流左翼政党(mainstream left-wing parties)的选民投出支持票。本研究主要以美国与德国为研究对象，依托个体选民换票数据(vote-switching data)，以及从政治演说(political speeches)与政党纲领(party manifestos)文本中推演得到的竞选宣传策略与目标群体定位方案，对上述理论展开实证检验。