Annual maximum sea surface temperature across the Red Sea (1982-2015)

Ocean warming is a major consequence of climate change, with the surface of the ocean having warmed by 0.11 °C/decade over the last 50 years and is estimated to continue to warm by an additional 0.6-2.0 °C before the end of the century. However, there is considerable variability in the rates experienced by different ocean regions, so understanding regional trends is important to inform on possible stresses for marine organisms, particularly in warm seas where organisms may be already operating in the high end of their thermal tolerance. Although the Red Sea is one of the warmest ecosystems on earth, its historical warming trends and thermal evolution remain largely understudied. We characterized the Red Sea's thermal regimes at the basin scale, with a focus on the spatial distribution and changes over time of sea surface temperature maxima, using remotely sensed sea surface temperature data from 1982-2015. The overall rate of warming for the Red Sea is 0.17 ± 0.07 °C/decade, while the northern Red Sea is warming between 0.40 and 0.45 °C/decade, all exceeding the global rate. Our findings show that the Red Sea is fast warming, which may in the future challenge its organisms and communities.

海洋变暖是气候变化的主要影响之一。过去50年间，全球海洋表层以每十年0.11℃的速率升温，且据预测，至本世纪末，表层海水还将额外升温0.6至2.0℃。然而不同海域的升温速率存在显著差异，因此厘清区域升温趋势，对于预判海洋生物可能面临的热胁迫至关重要——尤其对于那些已处于热耐受上限的暖海区域生物而言。尽管红海是全球水温最高的海洋生态系统之一，但学界对其历史升温趋势与热演化过程的研究仍较为匮乏。本研究基于1982-2015年的遥感海表温度数据集，在海盆尺度上刻画了红海的热状况特征，重点分析了海表最高温度的空间分布与时间变化规律。红海整体升温速率为0.17±0.07℃/十年，其中北部海域升温速率达0.40至0.45℃/十年，均高于全球平均水平。本研究结果表明，红海正处于快速升温阶段，这将在未来对其海洋生物与生态群落构成严峻挑战。