Number of days for Minimum Temperature over 90th percentile for Far Future (2080 - 2100)

Model Run: Far future (2080 - 2100) (Far future (2080 - 2100)). The Self-Organizing Map Downscaling (SOMD) was developed at the Climate Systems Analysis Group (CSAG)[1], University of Cape Town. This is a leading empirical downscaled technique and provides meteorological station level response to global climate change forcing (See Hewitson and Crane (2006) for methodological details and Wilby et al. (2004) for a review of this and other statistical downscaling methodologies). Downscaling of a General Circulation Model (GCM) is accomplished by deriving the normative local response from the atmospheric state on a given day, as defined from historical observed data. [1] http://www.csag.uct.ac.za/

模式运行时段：远未来时段（2080-2100年）（远未来时段（2080-2100年））。自组织映射降尺度（Self-Organizing Map Downscaling, SOMD）由开普敦大学气候系统分析小组（Climate Systems Analysis Group, CSAG）[1]研发。该方法为当前主流的经验统计降尺度技术，可提供全球气候变化强迫下的气象站点尺度响应（具体方法细节可参考Hewitson与Crane（2006）的研究，该方法及其他统计降尺度方法的综述可参阅Wilby等人（2004）的相关成果）。大气环流模式（General Circulation Model, GCM）的降尺度处理，通过从历史观测数据所定义的当日大气状态中推导标准局地响应来完成。[1] http://www.csag.uct.ac.za/