Local Economies and Economic Growth, Does Location Matter? A Spatial Analysis in the Great Lakes Region

We examine the growth rates of county per capita personal income in the ve-state region of the Great Lakes using data between 2010 and 2018. Our analysis reveals a clustering of slow-growing counties mostly in Illinois and relatively fast-growing counties in Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin. Using spatial regressions, we nd evidence suggesting relatively low levels of human capital and innovation drive growth in the initial period of expansion, whereas high levels of human capital and a business environment conducive to entrepreneurship drive growth towards full employment. Location of counties does matter for income growth. Between 2016 and 2018, we nd signicant negative spillover eects of Some College on local growth while business conditions conducive to entrepreneurs had positive spillover eects. Our results imply that there is value to a regional approach to economic development policy, coordinating local policies across independent, adjacent jurisdictions.

本研究针对五大湖（Great Lakes）五州区域内各县域的人均个人收入增长率展开考察，所用数据的时间跨度为2010至2018年。分析结果显示，增长缓慢的县域大多集中于伊利诺伊州，而印第安纳州、密歇根州、俄亥俄州与威斯康星州则分布着较多增长较快的县域。通过空间回归（spatial regression）分析，本研究发现如下证据：在扩张初期，较低水平的人力资本与创新是增长的核心驱动因素；而在向充分就业迈进的阶段，高水平的人力资本与有利于创业的营商环境则成为增长的主导动力。县域区位对收入增长确实存在显著影响。在2016至2018年间，我们发现“接受过部分大学教育”（Some College）对本地增长存在显著的负向溢出效应，而有利于创业的营商环境则带来了正向溢出效应。本研究结果表明，采取区域化的经济发展政策路径，对独立且相邻的行政辖区间的地方政策进行协调，具备切实的政策价值。