Data from: Survival estimates strongly depend on capture-recapture designs in a disturbed environment inducing dispersal

Capture‐Recapture (CR) approaches are extensively used to estimate demographic parameters. Their robustness relies on the selection of suitable statistical models, but also on the sampling design and effort deployed in the field. In colonial or territorial species showing breeding site fidelity, recurrent local perturbations, such as predation‐induced breeding failure, may lead individuals to disperse locally or regionally. This might induce heterogeneity in individual CR histories and biases in demographic parameter estimates. Here, we assessed the effect of buffer areas and multi‐site designs on annual survival estimate accuracy and precision. First, using simulated data with and without a multi‐site design, we compared survival estimates for different scenarios involving contrasted local and regional dispersal. Then, using data from a local multi‐site long‐term monitoring survey carried out in a colony of black‐legged kittiwakes, we tested the homogeneity of individual CR histories and compared survival estimates from three datasets including one or several breeding cliffs with or without buffer areas. Results from simulations highlighted that a single‐site design consistently led to underestimated or less precise survival values compared to a multi‐site design. Similarly, a multi‐site design allowed detecting significant temporal trends while a single‐site one did not. In the field‐based study, adding buffer areas reduced individual heterogeneity, but all three datasets suffered from strong trap‐dependence possibly due to individual breeding success affecting nest‐site fidelity. Implementing a multi‐site design significantly improved the accuracy and precision of annual survival estimates, regardless of CR models applied. Adapting the spatial scale of sampling design to the local environment and species behaviour is essential to provide robust parameters of key relevance for population monitoring and management. We show that implementing buffer areas and/or multi‐site designs may be especially beneficial for long‐lived species facing regular local perturbation events leading to local dispersal.

标记重捕法（Capture-Recapture，CR）被广泛应用于种群统计参数的估算。其稳健性不仅取决于合适的统计模型选择，还依赖于野外采样设计与工作投入。对于表现出繁殖位点保真度的集群或领域性物种而言，诸如捕食引发的繁殖失败这类周期性局部扰动，可能会促使个体进行局部或区域扩散。这一过程会引发个体标记重捕历史的异质性，进而导致种群统计参数估计出现偏差。

本研究评估了缓冲区设置与多站点采样设计对年存活率估计准确性与精确性的影响。首先，我们针对有无多站点设计的模拟数据，对比了包含不同局部与区域扩散情景下的存活率估计结果。随后，依托一项针对黑腿三趾鸥（black-legged kittiwakes）集群的长期多站点本地监测数据，我们检验了个体标记重捕历史的同质性，并对比了三个数据集的存活率估计结果——这三个数据集分别包含单个或多个繁殖峭壁，且设置或未设置缓冲区。

模拟结果显示，相较于多站点设计，单站点设计始终会导致存活率被低估或估计精度更低。类似地，多站点设计能够检测到显著的时间趋势，而单站点设计则无法做到这一点。在基于野外数据的研究中，增设缓冲区可降低个体异质性，但所有三个数据集均存在较强的捕获依赖效应，这可能源于个体繁殖成功率对巢位保真度的影响。无论采用何种标记重捕模型，实施多站点设计均可显著提升年存活率估计的准确性与精确性。

将采样设计的空间尺度适配于当地环境与物种行为，对于获取可靠的、对种群监测与管理具有关键意义的参数至关重要。我们的研究表明，对于面临周期性局部扰动并引发局部扩散的长寿物种而言，增设缓冲区和/或采用多站点设计可能会带来尤为显著的收益。