Research on China’s economic pulse based on ETC big data: Operational characteristics, structural challenges, and paths to high-quality development

Big data from highway ETC systems, characterized by full-domain coverage, high-frequency real-time updates, and precise granularity, provides a unique micro-observational window for perceiving the pulse of China’s economic operation. Based on the daily traffic data of national ETC users from Shandong Hi-Speed Xilian Science and Technology Co., Ltd. spanning the period 2023–2025, this study constructs a “China Economic Pulse Index” encompassing five core indicators: daily traffic volume, truck traffic volume, average truck load, inter-regional flow ratio, and travel efficiency. It systematically analyzes the economic operation logic reflected behind ETC big data. Research findings indicate that ETC data clearly reveals China’s economic trajectory featuring “fluctuating recovery, dual-peak cycles, enhanced resilience, and improved efficiency”. It accurately depicts the seasonal patterns and structural evolution of economic activities. At the same time, the index uncovers five deep-seated challenges: persistently weakening freight intensity, declining inter-regional mobility, a growing decoupling between passenger and cargo flows, uneven distribution of efficiency gains, and data blind spots during holidays. These insights offer empirical evidence for evaluating the development quality of China’s modern logistics system and the effectiveness of policies aimed at reducing overall social logistics costs during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. Building on these findings, the study proposes policy recommendations across five dimensions: strengthening supply-demand coordination, facilitating seamless inter-regional circulation, advancing equitable digital-intelligent transformation, enhancing high-frequency monitoring systems, and establishing a data-driven closed-loop governance mechanism. The goal is to provide robust data support and actionable references for accurately gauging economic trends and improving the precision and responsiveness of macroeconomic policy.