A Strategy of Development with Stability

ABSTRACT To resume economic growth after 20 years of quasi-stagnation depends on a growth strategy that combines macroeconomic stability with growth-oriented policies. The Real Plan stabilized prices, but, as a trade-off, the interest rate skyrocketed while the exchange rate remains artificially appreciated. The main challenge is to reduce the basic interest rate, which is considerably higher than the ones in countries with similar country risk classification. There are several reasons for that including little concern of the monetary authorities with reducing the interest rate, and the inverse relation between the interest rate and the default risk: the high interest rate defined by the Central Bank influences upward the Brazil risk.摘要：在经历二十年准停滞状态后恢复经济增长，有赖于一套兼顾宏观经济稳定与增长导向型政策的增长战略。雷亚尔计划（Real Plan）实现了物价稳定，但作为权衡代价，利率大幅飙升，同时汇率维持人为高估状态。当前核心挑战在于下调基准利率——该利率显著高于同属一类国家风险评级的其他国家的基准利率。造成这一现象的原因众多，其中包括货币当局对降息重视不足，以及利率与违约风险间的反向关联：巴西央行制定的高利率推高了巴西风险。