菠萝蜜批发价格预测分析数据

下游零售商、水果连锁店可以根据菠萝蜜价格预测趋势，在价格低点时增加采购量，在高点时减少采购量，从而显著降低采购成本。同时结合销售预测，企业可以制定更优的库存策略。例如，当预测价格即将上涨时，可适当增加安全库存；当预测价格下跌时，则加速出货、减少库存积压，实现“精益库存”。另外，短期价格预测有助于物流公司预判市场活跃度，合理调配冷链运输资源，优化仓储布局。1.数据采集：企业以“国研掌上果贸结算通平台”的真实交易数据为基础，汇总并提取出预测分析日前7日的菠萝蜜批发价格历史数据，从而构建出时间序列数据集。 2. 数据预处理：对数据进行清洗，去除缺失值和异常数据。3. 数据分析： 使用加权移动平均法。T= （T-1*7+T-2*6+T-3*5+T-4*4+T-5*3+T-6*2+T-7*1）/7+6+5+4+3+2+1 T:T日建议批发价格即预测分析日当日建议批发价格（斤/元)； T-1：预测分析日前一日批发价格（斤/元)； T-2: 预测分析日前二日批发价格（斤/元)…… T-7：预测分析日前七日批发价格（斤/元)。

Downstream retailers and fruit store chains can utilize jackfruit price trend forecasts to increase procurement volumes at price lows and reduce purchases at highs, thereby significantly lowering procurement costs. Combined with sales forecasts, enterprises can develop more optimal inventory strategies. For example, when prices are forecast to rise, appropriate safety stock can be increased; when prices are forecast to fall, shipments can be accelerated and inventory backlog reduced, achieving "lean inventory". Additionally, short-term price forecasts help logistics companies anticipate market activity, rationally allocate cold chain transportation resources, and optimize warehouse layout.

1. Data Collection: Based on the real transaction data from the "Guoyan Palm Fruit Trade Settlement Platform", enterprises summarize and extract 7-day historical jackfruit wholesale price data prior to the forecast and analysis date to construct a time-series dataset.
2. Data Preprocessing: Clean the data by removing missing values and abnormal data entries.
3. Data Analysis: The weighted moving average method is employed. The formula is:
T = (T₋₁×7 + T₋₂×6 + T₋₃×5 + T₋₄×4 + T₋₅×3 + T₋₆×2 + T₋₇×1) / (7+6+5+4+3+2+1)
Where T denotes the suggested wholesale price on day T (i.e., the suggested wholesale price on the day of forecast and analysis, unit: yuan per jin); T₋₁ denotes the wholesale price one day before the forecast and analysis date (yuan per jin); T₋₂ denotes the wholesale price two days before the forecast and analysis date (yuan per jin); ...; T₋₇ denotes the wholesale price seven days before the forecast and analysis date (yuan per jin).

搜集汇总

背景与挑战

背景概述

该数据集是国研软件股份有限公司登记的菠萝蜜批发价格预测分析数据，包含614条记录，每年更新，用于预测菠萝蜜的每日批发价格。数据基于前7天的历史价格，采用加权移动平均法进行计算，旨在帮助下游零售商、水果连锁店和物流公司优化采购、库存和运输策略，降低成本并提高效率。