Merkt2024 - SEIR based model of SARS-CoV-2 variant spread and cross-immunity in Ethiopia

Spanning August 2020 to July 2022, this model reconstructs SARS-CoV-2 infection and reinfection dynamics across multiple variants — mainly wildtype, Alpha, Delta, and Omicron BA.4/5. It describes how each variant spread through the population, incorporating cross-immunity between variants. The model is calibrated using seroprevalence data, PCR positivity rates, and variant sequencing, providing insights into how prior infections shaped susceptibility to future waves.