Replication Data for: Into the Fray: Explaining State Support for Non-Violent Resistance Movements Abroad

Under what conditions do states sponsor foreign nonviolent campaigns (FNCs) seeking to overthrow incumbent regimes? While political ideology plays a role, motivating liberal democracies to support (typically pro-democratic) campaigns, we argue strategic and material factors—specifically geo-political alignment and economic dependence—are central to explaining state sponsorship of FNCs, often overriding ideological and normative factors. A potential sponsor, whether democratic or autocratic, is unlikely to support FNCs when doing so jeopardizes a strategic partnership with the target regime, which may retaliate against the sponsor. Additionally, democracies are particularly deterred from supporting FNCs when the target regime can retaliate economically, such as by disrupting trade or other vital economic ties. To test these arguments, we leverage data from the External Support for Non-violent Campaigns Dataset, which documents global instances of state support for non-violent campaigns from 2000 to 2014. Consistent with our theory, we find that liberal democracies make up the vast majority of sponsors, but also that geo-political alignment between potential sponsor and target regime is strongly and negatively correlated with the provision of support. Moreover, economic dependence on the target reduces the likelihood of support among liberal democracies.

国家会在何种条件下资助旨在推翻现任政权的外国非暴力运动（Foreign Nonviolent Campaigns, FNCs）？尽管政治意识形态发挥了一定作用——推动自由民主国家支持（通常为亲民主性质的）非暴力运动，但我们主张，战略与物质层面的因素——具体而言是地缘政治同盟关系与经济依赖——才是解释国家资助外国非暴力运动的核心动因，其影响力往往超越意识形态与规范因素。无论潜在资助国是民主国家还是专制国家，若其资助行动会危及与目标政权的战略伙伴关系，而后者可能对资助国实施报复，那么这类国家都不太会提供资助。此外，若目标政权能够实施经济报复——例如中断贸易或其他关键经济联系，民主国家尤其会因此打消资助的念头。为验证上述论点，我们采用了《外国非暴力运动外部资助数据集》（External Support for Non-violent Campaigns Dataset）的数据，该数据集记录了2000年至2014年间全球范围内国家支持非暴力运动的各类案例。研究结果与我们的理论一致：自由民主国家构成了资助国的绝大多数；同时，潜在资助国与目标政权之间的地缘政治同盟关系与资助行为呈显著负相关。此外，对目标政权的经济依赖会降低自由民主国家提供资助的可能性。