A Predictive Model for Selecting Patients with HCV Genotype 3 Chronic Infection with a High Probability of Sustained Virological Response to Peginterferon Alfa-2a/Ribavirin

BackgroundAccess to direct-acting antiviral agents (DAAs) is restricted in some settings; thus, the European Association for the Study of the Liver recommends dual peginterferon/ribavirin (PegIFN/RBV) therapy wherever DAAs are unavailable. HCV genotype (GT) 3 infection is now the most difficult genotype to eradicate and PegIFN/RBV remains an effective option. The goal of this study was to devise a simple predictive score to identify GT3 patients with a high probability of achieving a sustained virologic response (SVR) with PegIFN alfa-2a/RBV therapy.MethodsRelationships between baseline characteristics and SVR were explored by multiple logistic regression models and used to develop a simple scoring system to predict SVR using data from 1239 treatment-naive GT3 patients who received PegIFN alfa-2a/RBV for 24 weeks in two large observational cohort studies.ResultsThe score was validated using a database of 473 patients. Scores were assigned for six factors as follows: age (years) (≤40: 2 points; >40 but ≤55: 1); bodyweight (kg) (9/L) (>200: 2; ≥100 but ConclusionsA simple baseline scoring system involving age, bodyweight, cirrhosis status, ALT level, platelet count and HCV RNA level can be used to identify treatment-naive Caucasian patients with HCV GT3 infection with a high probability of SVR with PegIFN alfa-2a/RBV therapy.