Evaluation of an open forecasting challenge to assess skill of West Nile virus neuroinvasive disease prediction Parasites & Vectors

West Nile virus (WNV) is the leading cause of mosquito-borne illness in the continental USA. WNV occurrence has high spatiotemporal variation, and current approaches to targeted control of the virus are limited, making forecasting a public health priority. However, little research has been done to compare strengths and weaknesses of WNV disease forecasting approaches on the national scale. We used forecasts submitted to the 2020 WNV Forecasting Challenge, an open challenge organized by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, to assess the status of WNV neuroinvasive disease (WNND) prediction and identify avenues for improvement. Grant no. NA16OAR4310253 Grant no. NA18OAR4310253B Grant no. NA20OAR4310253C