Factors associated with municipal corruption on union resources transfers

Abstract This article assesses the tendency to municipal corruption based on counting models, which have as response variables the findings recorded in 1600 audit reports of the Controladoria-Geral da União, CGU, referring to the Brazilian municipalities. The sensitivities of these irregularities were estimated an tested as a function of the volume of resources inspected, to their stage of development, to the role of social control, to its demographic characteristics, to the contagion effect among neighboring municipalities, to the second mandate of the mayor and his political party. The results have shown that the municipalities with medium and severe findings are those that receive a high percentage of resource transfers, they also have weak social control and a low level of municipal development, they are not sparsely populated and have neighboring municipalities with corruption problems. Sixteen medium irregularities and six serious irregularities are found of every R$ 100 million of resources received by a municipality.

摘要 本文基于计数模型（counting models）评估市政腐败倾向，以巴西联邦总审计署（Controladoria-Geral da União，CGU）针对巴西各市政当局出具的1600份审计报告中记录的违规查处结果作为响应变量。本文针对此类违规行为的敏感性展开估计与检验，该敏感性随受审计资源规模、市政发展阶段、社会监督作用、人口统计特征、邻近市政当局的腐败传染效应、市长连任情况及其所属政党属性的变化而变化。研究结果表明，存在中等及严重违规记录的市政当局，往往获得较高比例的财政资源转移，同时伴随社会监督薄弱、市政发展水平偏低的特征，且并非人口稀少，其邻近市政当局亦存在腐败问题。经测算，市政当局每接收1亿巴西雷亚尔（R$）的财政资金，平均会出现16起中等违规行为与6起严重违规行为。