2014 summer Arctic Sea Ice Forecast -Second Report-

This prediction used data from satellite microwave sensors AMSR-E and AMSR2, as well as the first report prediction. We analyzed the ice motion from January 1, 2014 up to June 10, 2014.
In addition to this ice motion, sea ice concentration on June 20, 2014 is used for the prediction. Sea ice cover in the Arctic starts retreating in May; interannual difference in the shape of ice cover becomes obvious after it. We found that sea ice concentration in June correlates strongly with that after July.
In this report we are showing the predicted ice cover from July 1, 2014 to September 11, 2014, calculated by the multiple regression analysis based on the ice motion during January-June (please see the first report for detailed method) and sea ice concentration on June 20, 2014.

本预测采用了卫星微波传感器AMSR-E与AMSR2的观测数据，并纳入了首份报告的预测结果。本次研究分析了2014年1月1日至2014年6月10日的海冰运动数据。
除上述海冰运动数据外，本次预测还使用了2014年6月20日的海冰密集度数据。北极海冰覆盖范围通常于5月开始消退，此后海冰覆盖形态的年际差异会愈发显著。研究发现，6月的海冰密集度与7月及之后的海冰密集度存在极强的相关性。
本报告展示了基于2014年1-6月海冰运动数据（详细方法参见首份报告）与2014年6月20日海冰密集度，通过多元回归分析计算得到的2014年7月1日至9月11日海冰覆盖范围预测结果。