Data-driven assessment of Apulian road network resilience: bridge unavailability and inner municipality isolation impact

Road networks are essential for resource movement, passenger transit, and supply chains. In seismically active areas like Italy, earthquakes can compromise road infrastructure, leading to structural failures and connectivity disruptions. Bridges, vital for travel and emergency response, are especially vulnerable to these extreme events, making their maintenance and recovery crucial for preserving transport efficiency. This study examines the resilience of the Apulian road network against bridge failures. By assessing seismic hazards, the structural vulnerability of each bridge to seismic actions, and the systemic consequences of its failure. A bridge criticality score is defined to support data-driven decision-making for bridge maintenance and recovery. This quantitative metric integrates seismic hazard data at each bridge site, fragility curves, and complex network analysis to provide a comprehensive evaluation of bridge criticality. Additionally, the risk of isolation for inner areas due to bridge disruptions is assessed using graph theory centrality metrics. By combining the bridge criticality score with an emphasis on inner regions, this approach offers valuable insights to improve road network resilience, mitigate isolation risks, and promote territorial sustainability in earthquake-prone zones.

道路网络对于资源调配、客运通行以及供应链运作至关重要。在意大利等地震活跃区域，地震可损毁道路基础设施，引发结构失效与连通性中断。桥梁作为通行与应急响应的关键节点，对这类极端灾害尤为脆弱，因此其养护与恢复工作对维持运输效率至关重要。本研究聚焦普利亚（Apulian）道路网络在桥梁失效场景下的韧性表现，通过评估各桥梁所处区域的地震危险性、单座桥梁在地震作用下的结构脆弱性，以及桥梁失效所引发的系统性后果展开分析。研究定义了桥梁关键度评分体系，用于支撑桥梁养护与恢复工作的数据驱动型决策。该量化指标整合了各桥梁点位的地震危险性数据、易损性曲线（fragility curves）与复杂网络分析方法，可对桥梁关键度展开全面评估。此外，本研究还借助图论中心性指标，评估了因桥梁中断导致内陆区域陷入孤立的风险。该方法将桥梁关键度评分与内陆区域优先级评估相结合，可为地震易发区提升道路网络韧性、降低区域孤立风险、推动区域可持续发展提供极具价值的决策参考。