Replication Data for: The Lost Generation? Labor Market Outcomes for Post Great Recession Entrants

Abstract: I study cohort patterns in the labor market outcomes of recent college graduates, examining changes surrounding the Great Recession. Recession entrants have lower wages and employment than those of earlier cohorts; more recent cohorts’ employment is even lower, but the newest entrants’ wages have risen. I relate these changes to “scarring” effects of initial conditions. I demonstrate that adverse early conditions permanently reduce new entrants’ employment probabilities. I also replicate earlier results of medium-term scarring effects on wages that fade out by the early 30s. But scarring cannot account for the employment collapse for recent cohorts. There was a dramatic negative structural break in college graduates’ employment rates, beginning around the 2005 entry cohort, that shows no sign of abating.

摘要：本文研究近年大学毕业生劳动力市场表现的队列特征，并考察了大衰退（Great Recession）前后的相关变化。研究发现，相较于更早的入职队列，大衰退时期进入职场的毕业生薪资与就业率均更低；后续入职队列的就业率进一步下滑，但最新入职群体的薪资有所回升。本文将上述变化与初始就业环境的“疤痕效应（scarring effects）”相联系，证明不利的早期就业条件会永久性降低应届毕业生的就业概率。同时，本文还复现了此前的研究结论：薪资层面的中期疤痕效应会在劳动者步入三十岁出头时逐渐消退。但疤痕效应无法解释近年队列的就业率骤降问题——大学毕业生就业率自2005年入职队列前后起出现了显著的负向结构断点（structural break），且暂无任何消退迹象。