Climate shelters for habitats of community and regional interest of the CAPV.

The project is part of the Energy Transition and Climate Change Plan 2021-2024 of the Basque Government (Basque Government, 2021), which includes among its 15 flagship initiatives to promote a “resilient Basque Natura 2000 network that favors climate neutrality”, helping to increase the resilience of the territory while facilitating the path to the neutrality of the territory. The present analysis focuses on determining the areas in which the ideal climatic conditions for certain terrestrial habitats are maintained in a climate change scenario, both those that coincide with their current surface (SA) and those that extend in other areas. Eight terrestrial habitats were evaluated: 3 forests (9120-Acidophilic beech, 9340-Encinar and carrascales, G1.86-Acidophilic forest dominated by Quercus robur), 2 scrubland (4030-Acidophilic dry bezels, 4040*-Coastal dry bellies) and 3 meadows-pasts (6210*-Mesophilic pastes with Brachypodium pinnatum, 6220*-Berophilic pastes of Brachypodium retusum, 6510-Prados of Atlantic sieges). The analysis was carried out based on the calculation of the exposure to climate change carried out within the framework of the project “Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change of the Natura 2000 Network in the CAPV” initiated in 2017 within the R & D program KLIMATEK (innovation and demonstration projects in adaptation to climate change) promoted by the Basque Government. The definition of “Refugia Reseach Coallition” was used as a reference where, climate shelters are those areas that remain relatively protected from climate change over time, so that they present or may present in the future climatic conditions equivalent to the current ones to host a specific habitat or species, thus enabling the persistence and potential expansion of biodiversity. Thus, three different typologies of climate shelters were defined: — Core shelter (RN): areas of the current distribution of a habitat that maintain optimal climatic conditions in a scenario of future climate change, enabling its conservation. — Persistence zone (ZP): areas of the current potential distribution of a habitat in which it is currently absent, which maintain optimal climatic conditions in a scenario of future climate change, enabling its persistence. — Neo-habitat (NH): areas outside the current potential distribution of a habitat, but that in a scenario of future climate change may present climatic conditions equivalent to those optimal to host it, and where its potential expansion could be possible. The detailed definition of the different types of shelters, the calculations made and a discussion of the results obtained can be found in the specific document associated with this data mapping "Climate shelters for habitats of community and regional interest of the CAPV. Preliminary analysis for terrestrial habitats" (Ihobe, 2021). The quantitative calculation of the exposure using Potential Distribution Models was based on the most up-to-date cartographic information on the distribution of terrestrial habitats of interest (community and regional), as well as the regionalised climate data on temperature and precipitation for the climate scenario SPC 8.5 in the time period 2071-2100 (Ihobe, 2019). The reference mapping as well as the base maps are nourished by the existing information in GeoEuskadi (Infrastructure of Spatial Data of the Basque Country). Exposure is considered to exist when the current surface (HS) of a habitat does not coincide geographically with its potential distribution in the climate change scenario (Future Potential Surface, SPF). The detailed description of the obtaining of potential surfaces can be found in the specific document "Methodology for the calculation of the climatic risk of terrestrial habitats in the Basque Country.本项目隶属于巴斯克政府2021-2024年能源转型与气候变化计划（巴斯克政府，2021），该计划包含15项旗舰举措，其中一项为"打造助力气候中和的韧性巴斯克Natura 2000网络"，旨在提升区域韧性的同时，推动区域迈向气候中和。 本分析聚焦于气候变化情景下，部分陆地生境的理想气候条件留存区域——既包括与生境当前分布面积（Surface Area，SA）重合的区域，也包括分布于其他区域的潜在留存区。本次评估共涵盖8类陆地生境：3类森林（9120——喜酸性山毛榉林（Acidophilic beech）、9340——西班牙栓皮栎与欧洲黑松林（Encinar and carrascales）、G1.86——以夏栎为优势种的酸性林（Acidophilic forest dominated by Quercus robur））、2类灌丛（4030——酸性干旱坡地灌丛（Acidophilic dry bezels）、4040*——沿海干旱滩涂灌丛（Coastal dry bellies））以及3类草甸-牧场（6210*——以羽状雀麦（Brachypodium pinnatum）为优势种的中温牧场（Mesophilic pastes）、6220*——以短柄雀麦（Brachypodium retusum）为优势种的喜钙牧场（Berophilic pastes）、6510——大西洋莎草草甸（Prados of Atlantic sieges））。本次分析基于"巴斯克自治区（Comunidad Autónoma del País Vasco，简称CAPV）Natura 2000网络的气候脆弱性与适应对策"项目中的气候变化暴露度计算方法开展，该项目于2017年启动，隶属于巴斯克政府推动的KLIMATEK计划（气候变化适应领域创新与示范项目）。 本分析采用"避难所研究联盟（Refugia Research Coalition）"的定义作为参考框架：气候避难所指长期相对免受气候变化影响的区域，能够维持或在未来具备与当前等效的气候条件，以支撑特定生境或物种存续，从而助力生物多样性的留存与潜在扩张。据此，本次研究定义了三类气候避难所类型： — 核心避难所（Core Shelter，RN）：生境当前分布区内，在未来气候变化情景下仍能维持最优气候条件的区域，可保障该生境的原位保护。 — 存续区（Persistence Zone，ZP）：生境当前潜在分布区内目前未被该生境覆盖的区域，在未来气候变化情景下仍能维持最优气候条件，可保障该生境的存续。 — 新生境区（Neo-habitat，NH）：生境当前潜在分布区外的区域，但在未来气候变化情景下，其气候条件可达到支撑该生境存续的最优标准，具备该生境潜在扩张的可能性。 各类避难所的详细定义、相关计算过程及所得结果的讨论，可参阅本数据映射关联的专项文档《巴斯克自治区具有社区与区域保护价值的生境气候避难所：陆地生境初步分析》（Ihobe，2021）。 本次通过潜在分布模型（Potential Distribution Models）开展的暴露度定量计算，基于当前最新的目标陆地生境（社区及区域保护级）分布制图数据，以及2071-2100年时段SPC 8.5气候情景下的区域化气温与降水气候数据（Ihobe，2019）。参考制图与基础底图的数据来源为GeoEuskadi（巴斯克自治区空间数据基础设施）。当生境当前分布面积（Habitat Surface，HS）与气候变化情景下的潜在分布面积（未来潜在分布面积（Future Potential Surface，SPF））在地理上不重合时，即视为存在气候暴露风险。潜在分布面积的获取方法详见专项文档《巴斯克自治区陆地生境气候风险计算方法》。