When and where do elections matter? A global test of the democratization by elections hypothesis, 1900–2010

Successive multiparty elections in sub-Saharan Africa are associated with incremental democratization. Yet tests in other regions are less than encouraging. Non-significant findings on Latin America and post-communist Eurasia, as well as conceptual criticism regarding the theory’s application in the contemporary Middle East, suggest that this may be a case of African exceptionalism. This article moves these debates forward by posing a comprehensive, global set of tests on the democratizing effect of elections. We seek to establish the scope conditions of the argument geographically, temporally, and substantively. Although we find a correlation between reiterated multiparty elections and improvements in the liberal-democratic components of electoral regimes globally since 1900, the relationship is only substantial in the period since the onset of the third wave of democracy. Experiences with iterated multiparty elections have substantive importance for democratization in sub-Saharan Africa, the post-communist region, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Asia. For the Middle East and North Africa, the relationship is weaker and less robust. Finally, the results suggest that reiterated sequences of multiparty elections are associated with improvements to liberal and deliberative components of democracy more so than egalitarian components.

撒哈拉以南非洲地区接连举行的多党选举与渐进式民主化进程存在关联。然而，其他地区的相关检验结果却不尽如人意：针对拉美及后共产主义欧亚大陆的研究未发现显著关联，加之有概念层面的批评质疑该理论在当代中东的适用性，这似乎印证了非洲例外论（African exceptionalism）的观点。本文通过构建一套覆盖全球的综合性检验，剖析多党选举对民主化的影响，以此推进相关学术讨论。我们旨在从地理、时间与实质三个维度，明确该论点的适用边界。尽管我们发现，自1900年以来，全球范围内反复举行的多党选举与选举政体的自由民主要素改善之间存在相关性，但该关联仅在民主第三波开启后的时期才具有显著意义。反复举行多党选举的实践，对撒哈拉以南非洲、后共产主义地区、拉美及加勒比地区以及亚洲的民主化进程具有实质影响。而在中东与北非地区，该关联则相对薄弱且稳定性不足。最后，研究结果显示，多党选举的连续序列与民主的自由性及协商性要素改善的关联，要强于其与平等性要素改善的关联。