The COVID-19 pandemic: theoretical scenarios of its socioeconomic impacts in Latin America and the Caribbean

ABSTRACT This paper provides some theoretical scenarios the socioeconomic impacts caused by the COVID-19 pandemic for the Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). To do so, after a brief literature review of previous pandemics, we use the macro and microeconomic theory, together with aggregated data, in order to provide expected implications of the COVID-19 pandemic for the LAC region. At a macroeconomic level, we explain how the COVID-19 shock is causing both aggregate supply and aggregate demand to reduce so plunging the region into a recession and why such a recession is dangerously harmful for the LAC economies. At a micro level, we describe why some enterprises would adapt to remain in the market or even growth; by contrast, some of them would leave the market in the short term. For the consumers, the impact of this sanitary crisis is related to the change in their preferences and household members’ relations due to extended quarantines.

摘要 本研究针对拉丁美洲与加勒比地区（Latin America and the Caribbean，简称LAC），就新冠疫情所引发的社会经济影响构建了若干理论情景。为此，在对既往流行病相关研究开展简要文献综述后，本研究结合宏观与微观经济理论及汇总数据，旨在推演新冠疫情对LAC地区的潜在影响。在宏观经济层面，本文阐释了新冠疫情冲击如何同时压低总供给与总需求，进而令该区域陷入经济衰退，同时说明了此类衰退为何会对LAC经济体造成极具危害性的影响。在微观层面，本文阐释了部分企业将通过调整适配以留存于市场甚至实现增长；相较之下，另有部分企业会在短期内退出市场。对于消费者而言，本次公共卫生危机的影响体现为：因防疫隔离措施延长，消费者的偏好及家庭成员间的互动关系均发生了变化。