Voter Turnout in New and Established Democracies 1939-2015

Replication materials for: Kostelka, Filip. 2017. “Does Democratic Consolidation Lead to a Decline in Voter Turnout? Global Evidence Since 1939.” American Political Science Review. doi: 10.1017/S0003055417000259. The datasets cover 947 elections held in new and established democracies. Article abstract: This article challenges the conventional wisdom that democratic consolidation depresses voter turnout. Studying democratic legislative elections held worldwide between 1939 and 2015, it explains why voting rates in new democracies decrease when they do, how much they decrease, and how this phenomenon relates to the voter decline observed in established democracies. The article identifies three main sources of decline. The first and most important is the democratization context. When democratizations are opposition-driven or occur in electorally mobilized dictatorships, voter turnout is strongly boosted in the founding democratic elections. As time passes and the mobilizing democratization context loses salience, voting rates return to normal, which translates into turnout declines. The second source is the democratic consolidation context, which seems to depress voter turnout only in post-Communist democracies. Finally, new democracies mirror established democracies in that their voting rates have been declining since the 1970s, irrespective of the two previous mechanisms.

本数据集为以下论文的复现材料：菲利普·科斯特尔卡（Filip Kostelka），2017年，《民主巩固（democratic consolidation）是否会导致选民投票率（voter turnout）下降？1939年以来的全球证据》，发表于《美国政治科学评论》，DOI: 10.1017/S0003055417000259。
本数据集涵盖了新兴民主国家（new democracies）与成熟民主国家（established democracies）的947场选举。
本文对“民主巩固会抑制选民投票率”的主流观点提出了质疑。通过研究1939年至2015年全球范围内的民主议会选举（legislative elections），本文阐释了新兴民主国家的选民投票率在何种情形下会出现下降、下降幅度如何，以及该现象与成熟民主国家所观测到的投票率下滑之间的关联。
本文指出了投票率下滑的三大主要成因。首要且最为关键的成因是民主化语境（democratization context）：当民主化进程由反对势力主导，或是发生在已具备选举动员基础的独裁政权中时，首次民主选举的选民投票率会被显著推高。随着时间推移，这类具备动员效应的民主化语境的影响力逐渐消退，投票率回归常态，这一过程便体现为投票率的下滑。
第二个成因是民主巩固语境，该因素似乎仅在后共产主义民主国家（post-Communist democracies）中会抑制选民投票率。
最后，新兴民主国家与成熟民主国家存在一个共性：无论受前述两种机制影响与否，其选民投票率自20世纪70年代以来均呈现下滑趋势。