Impact of economic growth, energy consumption, and trade openness on carbon emissions: evidence from the top 20 emitting nations

The study focuses on the top 20 carbon emission-increasing nations across continents from 2000 to 2021 and the effects of gross domestic product, energy consumption, and trade openness on carbon emissions. The study uses a panel dataset and multiple linear regression analysis to pinpoint the significant factors influencing each nation's carbon emissions. The findings indicate that China, Kazakhstan, Saudi Arabia, and South Korea in Asia; Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, and the Seychelles in Africa; Antigua and Barbuda, Bolivia, Chile, and Panama in America; Albania, Belarus, Lithuania, and Russia in Europe; and Fiji, Samoa, Tonga, and Vanuatu in Oceania have a highly significant impact on carbon emissions in their respective regions. Energy consumption significantly increases carbon emissions in all countries except Panama and Kazakhstan, where it only significantly impacts GDP-related carbon emissions. These insights lay the groundwork for policymakers to prioritise sustainable development, reduce carbon emissions in their decision-making processes, and establish comprehensive strategies that reconcile ecological concerns with socioeconomic goals by understanding the intricate dynamics between gross domestic product, energy use, trade openness, and carbon emissions.

本研究以2000年至2021年间全球各大洲碳排放增幅排名前20的国家为研究对象，探讨国内生产总值（Gross Domestic Product，GDP）、能源消费（energy consumption）与贸易开放度（trade openness）对碳排放的影响效应。本研究采用面板数据集（panel dataset）与多元线性回归分析方法，精准识别影响各国碳排放的关键驱动因素。研究结果显示，各区域内的以下国家对其所在区域的碳排放均具有高度显著影响：亚洲的中国、哈萨克斯坦、沙特阿拉伯与韩国；非洲的阿尔及利亚、埃及、摩洛哥与塞舌尔；美洲的安提瓜和巴布达、玻利维亚、智利与巴拿马；欧洲的阿尔巴尼亚、白俄罗斯、立陶宛与俄罗斯；以及大洋洲的斐济、萨摩亚、汤加与瓦努阿图。除巴拿马与哈萨克斯坦外，能源消费对所有样本国家的碳排放均存在显著的正向提升作用；而巴拿马与哈萨克斯坦的能源消费仅会对与国内生产总值相关的碳排放产生显著影响。本研究通过厘清国内生产总值、能源消费、贸易开放度与碳排放之间的复杂作用机制，可为政策制定者在决策环节优先考量可持续发展目标、推进碳排放削减工作提供理论依据，并助力其制定兼顾生态保护与社会经济发展目标的综合战略。