Developmental Cost Theory predicts thermal environment and vulnerability to global warming

Metazoans must develop from zygotes to feeding organisms. In doing so, developing offspring consume up to 60% of the energy provided by their parent. The cost of development depends on two rates: metabolic rate, which determines the rate that energy is used; and developmental rate, which determines the length of the developmental period. Both development and metabolism are highly temperature-dependent such that developmental costs should be sensitive to the local thermal environment. Here we develop, parameterise and test Developmental Cost Theory (DCT), a physiologically explicit theory that reveals that ectotherms have narrow thermal windows in which developmental costs are minimised (Topt). Our DCT-derived estimates of Topt predict the natural thermal environment of 71 species across 7 phyla remarkably well (R2 ~ 0.83). DCT predicts that costs of development are much more sensitive to small changes in temperature than classic measures such as survival. Warming-driven changes to devel...

后生动物（Metazoans）必须从合子（zygote）发育为可摄食的个体。在此过程中，发育中的子代最多会消耗亲代提供的60%的能量。发育成本取决于两个速率：决定能量消耗速率的代谢率（metabolic rate），以及决定发育周期时长的发育速率（developmental rate）。发育与代谢均具有极强的温度依赖性，因此发育成本理应对当地热环境十分敏感。本文构建、参数化并验证了发育成本理论（Developmental Cost Theory, DCT）——这一具有生理学明确性的理论揭示，变温动物（ectotherms）拥有可使发育成本降至最低的狭窄热窗口（thermal windows），即最优温度（Topt）。基于该理论得到的Topt估算结果，可极佳地预测7个门下71个物种的自然热环境（决定系数R²≈0.83）。发育成本理论预测，相较于存活率等经典指标，发育成本对温度小幅变化的敏感性要高得多。气候变暖驱动的发育……