Data from: The effects of climate change on a mega-diverse country: predicted shifts in mammalian species richness and turnover in continental Ecuador.

Ecuador is one of 17 nations with the greatest diversity in the world, sheltering lowland and mountain regions that are considered global biodiversity hotspots. While these regions are projected to be highly impacted by climate change, it is not clear what would be the consequences for faunal diversity and conservation. To address this issue, we used an ensemble of 8 species distribution models (SDM) to determine future shifts and identify areas of high changes in species richness and species turnover of 201 mammals. Distributions were projected using two different climate change scenarios at the 2050 horizon. We also contrasted two extreme dispersal scenarios (no-dispersal versus full dispersal). Our results showed extended distributional shifts all over the country. For most groups, current mammal diversity in Ecuador is expected to decrease significantly under all climate change scenarios and dispersal assumptions. The Northern Andes and the Amazonian region would remain diversity hotspots but with a significant decrease in the number of species. All predictions, including the most conservative scenarios in terms of dispersal and climate change, predict very important changes in the distribution of mammal diversity in Ecuador. Primates might be the most severely affected because they would have fewer suitable areas compared to other mammals. Our work supports that it is imperative for sound conservation strategies in Ecuador to incorporate the impact of climate change.

厄瓜多尔是全球生物多样性最为丰富的17个国家之一，拥有被视为全球生物多样性热点的低地与山地生态系统。尽管上述区域预计将受到气候变化的强烈冲击，但目前尚不明确这会对动物多样性及保护工作带来何种后果。
为解决这一科研问题，本研究集成8种物种分布模型（Species Distribution Models，SDM），以解析201种哺乳动物的未来分布偏移，并识别物种丰富度与物种更替变化显著的区域。
本研究以2050年为时间节点，采用两种不同的气候变化情景开展分布预测；同时对比了两种极端扩散情景：无扩散与完全扩散。
研究结果显示，全国范围内均出现了大范围的分布偏移现象。在所有气候变化情景与扩散假设下，厄瓜多尔多数类群的现有哺乳动物多样性预计将出现显著下降。
北部安第斯山脉与亚马孙地区仍将维持生物多样性热点的地位，但区域内物种种群数量将出现显著减少。
所有预测结果——即便采用最保守的扩散与气候变化情景——均表明厄瓜多尔的哺乳动物多样性分布将发生极为显著的变化。
相较于其他哺乳动物类群，灵长类动物的适宜栖息区域将大幅缩减，受影响程度或最为严重。
本研究证实，厄瓜多尔若要制定科学合理的生物保护策略，必须将气候变化的影响纳入考量范畴。