Climate-driven limits to future carbon storage in California's wildland ecosystems

Enhanced ecosystem carbon storage is a key component of many climate mitigation pathways. The State of California has set an ambitious goal of carbon neutrality by 2045, relying in part on enhanced carbon sequestration in natural and working lands. We used statistical modeling, including random forests and climate analogues, to explore the climate-driven challenges and uncertainties associated with the goal of long-term carbon sequestration in forests and shrublands. We found that seasonal patterns of temperature and precipitation are strong controllers of the spatial distribution of aboveground live carbon. RCP8.5 projections of temperature and precipitation were estimated to drive decreases of 16.1 ± 7.5% in aboveground live carbon by the end of the century, with coastal areas of central and northern California and low/mid-elevation mountain areas being most vulnerable. With RCP4.5 projections, declines were less severe, with 8.8 ± 5.3% carbon loss. In either scenario, the increased t...

增强型生态系统碳储存是众多气候减缓路径的核心组成部分。
加利福尼亚州已设定2045年实现碳中和的宏伟目标，其中部分依托自然与生产性用地的碳封存能力提升。
本研究采用统计建模方法（包括随机森林（Random Forests）与气候类比法（Climate Analogues）），探究森林与灌丛长期碳封存目标所面临的气候驱动挑战与不确定性。
研究发现，温度与降水的季节模式是地上活体碳储量空间分布格局的关键调控因子。
典型浓度路径（Representative Concentration Pathway，RCP）8.5情景下，据估算至本世纪末，气候要素变化将导致地上活体碳储量下降16.1%±7.5%，其中加利福尼亚州中北部沿海区域及中低海拔山地受影响最为脆弱。
而在典型浓度路径（RCP）4.5情景下，碳储量下降幅度相对缓和，仅出现8.8%±5.3%的碳损失。
在两种情景下，碳储量的增长[原文未完整显示]