Data and code from: Accounting for species interactions is necessary for predicting how arctic arthropod communities respond to climate change

Species interactions are known to structure ecological communities. Still, the influence of climate change on biodiversity has primarily been evaluated by correlating individual species distributions with local climatic descriptors, then extrapolating into future climate scenarios. We ask whether predictions on arctic arthropod response to climate change can be improved by accounting for species interactions. For this, we use a 14-year-long, weekly time series from Greenland, resolved to the species level by mitogenome mapping. During the study period, temperature increased by 2 °C and arthropod species richness halved. We show that with abiotic variables alone, we are essentially unable to predict species responses, but with species interactions included, the predictive power of the models improves considerably. Cascading trophic effects thereby emerge as important in structuring biodiversity response to climate change. Given the need to scale up from species-level to community-level p...

众所周知，物种互作（species interactions）塑造了生态群落的结构。然而，当前关于气候变化对生物多样性影响的评估，主要通过将单个物种的分布与局地气候描述因子相关联，再外推至未来气候情景来完成。本研究旨在探讨：若纳入物种互作因素，能否提升北极节肢动物（arthropod）对气候变化响应的预测精度。为此，我们采用了源自格陵兰岛、时长14年的周度时间序列数据，通过线粒体基因组（mitogenome）绘图技术实现物种的种级鉴定。研究期间，当地气温上升了2摄氏度，节肢动物物种丰富度减半。研究结果表明：仅使用非生物变量时，我们几乎无法预测物种的响应；但纳入物种互作因素后，模型的预测能力得到显著提升。由此可见，级联营养效应在塑造生物多样性对气候变化的响应过程中发挥着关键作用。鉴于亟需从物种尺度拓展至群落尺度的研究……