Replication Data and Code for: 'Dividing Stakes: Economic Interdependence, Natural Resources, and Conflict'

Replication materials for: "Dividing Stakes: Economic Interdependence, Natural Resources, and Conflict." This study examines how trade secures peace at varying levels across issues under contention. I argue that trade is more likely to prevent militarized interstate disputes (MIDs) over issues mainly salient for natural resources. However, its pacifying effects are offset when a resource-salient issue is also salient for intangible reasons. Using data from the Issue Correlates of War (ICOW) project, I test these arguments with both dyadic and extradyadic trade. Yet, only dyadic trade yields strong empirical support. These findings reveal the need for further exploration into how the association between economic interdependence and peace is conditioned by issue salience. They also call for a reassessment of multilateral trade ties in conflict prevention. Beyond these implications, I offer new insight into changing geopolitical orders in the wake of recent shocks, including the rise of economic nationalism fueled by the COVID-19 pandemic.

《利益分割：经济相互依赖、自然资源与冲突》一文的复现研究配套材料。本研究探讨贸易如何在不同争议议题场景下发挥和平保障作用。笔者提出，当争议议题主要因自然资源而凸显时，贸易更有可能阻止国家间军事化争端（Militarized Interstate Disputes, MIDs）。然而，若某一与自然资源相关的议题同时因非物质因素而凸显，则贸易的和平效应将被抵消。本研究借助战争议题关联项目（Issue Correlates of War, ICOW）的数据集，分别采用双边贸易与超双边贸易数据对上述论点进行实证检验，但仅有双边贸易为该论点提供了稳健的实证支撑。上述研究结果表明，有必要进一步探讨议题凸显性如何调节经济相互依赖与和平之间的关联；同时，该研究也呼吁重新评估多边贸易纽带在冲突预防中的作用。除上述启示外，本研究还为理解近期冲击下的地缘政治秩序变迁提供了新视角，其中包括新冠疫情（COVID-19 pandemic）催生的经济民族主义抬头。