Expansion, displacement and interiorization of homicides in Brazil, between 2000 and 2015: a spatial analysis

Abstract The scope of this paper is to analyze the variation of the spatial pattern of the homicide rate in Brazil between 2000 and 2015. It is an ecological study by micro-regions of homicides taken from the Mortality Information System, using Moran indexes, and critical area clusters (95% CI). The rate increased by 6% (to 29.1/100,000 inhabitants (95% CI 28.9, 29.4), and in 80% of the micro regions between 2000 and 2015. The areas with high rates (> 38.2/100,000) increased 2.7-fold. In 2000, the highest rates were concentrated in areas in Pernambuco, São Paulo, Mato Grosso and Rio de Janeiro; by 2015, it will affect most states in the North and Northeast. The coastal regions of the Northeast and borders of Pará and Maranhão in the Amazon are critical areas. The lowest rate (19.1/100,000) is in São Paulo and Santa Catarina micro regions, with less critical clusters in the Southeast and South regions. Homicides have expanded into the interior of Brazil, with displacement between regions, mainly gravitating towards the poorest, which exhibit more critical areas in several scenarios, such as state borders and the coast. Conversely, there is marked contraction of homicides in states of highly developed regions with the presence of less critical areas. Key words Homicide

摘要
本研究旨在分析2000年至2015年间巴西杀人犯罪率的空间格局演变。本研究为基于死亡信息系统（Mortality Information System）获取的微区域杀人犯罪数据开展的生态学研究，采用莫兰指数（Moran indexes）与临界区域聚类法，以95%置信区间（95% CI）进行统计分析。2000至2015年，巴西全国杀人犯罪率上升6%，达到每10万居民29.1例（95% CI 28.9~29.4），且80%的微区域犯罪率均出现上涨。高犯罪率区域（＞38.2例/10万居民）的数量增长至原来的2.7倍。2000年，高犯罪率区域集中于伯南布哥州、圣保罗州、马托格罗索州与里约热内卢州；至2015年，犯罪率高企的区域已覆盖北部与东北部大部分州份。东北部沿海区域以及亚马孙地区帕拉州与马拉尼昂州的交界地带为犯罪高发临界区域。最低犯罪率（19.1例/10万居民）出现在圣保罗州与圣卡塔琳娜州的微区域，东南部与南部区域的临界聚类程度相对较低。杀人犯罪现象已向巴西内陆地区扩散，区域间出现犯罪与人口的流动，且主要向贫困程度较高的区域聚集，此类区域在多种情景下均存在更多临界高发区域，例如州界沿线与沿海地带。与之相反，高度发达地区的州份杀人犯罪现象出现显著收缩，临界高发区域较少。
关键词：杀人犯罪（Homicide）