Replication Data for: Ethnicity, Political Survival, and the Exchange of Nationalist Foreign Policy

How does leadership’s desire for political survival in ethnically heterogeneous democracies affect the probability of states exchanging nationalist foreign policy? I define nationalist foreign policy as foreign policy that aims to fulfil national self-governance using a civic or ethnic frame. I argue that civic-nationalist policy disputing the territoriality of one’s own state is more likely, while ethno- nationalist policy favoring the leadership’s foreign co-ethnics is less likely, when the size of the leadership’s ethnic group is small and the level of democracy is relatively high. This is because the leadership, under such domestic conditions, has to mobilize support from other ethnic groups in order to stay in power. Civic-nationalist policy allows the leadership to increase domestic solidarity across ethnic lines and mobilize support from other ethnic groups, whereas ethno-nationalist policy would risk other ethnic groups criticizing the leadership of being ethno-centrist. These hypotheses are supported by quantitative analysis using an original dataset.

在族裔多元的民主国家中，领导者的政治生存诉求如何影响国家推行民族主义外交政策的概率？本文将民族主义外交政策定义为以公民或族裔框架实现民族自治的外交政策。本文提出如下论点：当领导者所属族裔群体规模较小且民主程度相对较高时，该国更有可能推行质疑本国领土属性的公民民族主义政策，而倾向于支持领导者境外同族群体的族裔民族主义政策则推行概率更低。这是因为在这类国内环境下，领导者为维持执政地位，必须争取其他族裔群体的支持。公民民族主义政策能够帮助领导者跨越族裔界限增强国内团结，动员其他族裔群体的支持；而族裔民族主义政策则可能招致其他族裔群体批评领导者存在族裔中心主义倾向。本文通过原创数据集开展定量分析，验证了上述假说。