Diversity and Diversion: How Ethnic Composition Affects Diversionary Conflict

How does a state’s ethnic composition affect its propensity to engage in diversionary conflicts? Recent empirical work examines the political conditions under which domestic unrest compels an embattled leader to initiate conflict abroad. We remain uncertain, however, of what social or demographic characteristics make states particularly prone to diversionary behavior. This article tries to address this gap, examining whether a state’s ethnic structure conditions its leader’s response to domestic discontent. Combining the expansive literatures on ethnic politics and diversionary war yields conflicting expectations here. I find that ethnically fragmented states are significantly more prone to initiating diversionary conflicts, and I show that the greater availability of “conflict opportunities” resulting from transborder ethnic-kin groups, in part, drives this effect. A brief case study illustrates these dynamics.

一国的族群构成如何影响其发起转移冲突（diversionary conflicts）的倾向？近期的实证研究探讨了国内动荡迫使身陷执政困境的领导人发起对外冲突的政治条件。然而，学界目前仍尚不明确，究竟是哪些社会或人口特征会让国家更易出现转移行为。本文旨在填补这一研究空白，考察一国的族群结构是否会对其领导人应对国内不满情绪的策略形成制约。整合族群政治与转移战争（diversionary war）的海量相关文献后，会在该议题上得到相互矛盾的理论预期。本文研究发现，族群碎片化程度更高的国家，其发起转移冲突的概率显著更高；同时本文表明，跨境同族裔群体所带来的“冲突机遇”更为充裕，在一定程度上推动了这一效应。最后通过一则简短的案例研究阐释了上述动态机制。