Global Business and Financial Cycles: A Tale of Two Capital Account Regimes

Using a new equity price-based measure of the global financial cycle, this paper evaluates the relative importance of global financial shocks for quarterly equity returns and output growths in a large sample of advanced and emerging economies, as well as in South Korea and China--two countries on本文采用一种基于股票价格的新型全球金融周期（global financial cycle）测度指标，针对涵盖大量发达经济体与新兴经济体的样本，以及韩国和中国两国，评估全球金融冲击对季度股票收益率与产出增长率的相对重要性——此两国正处于