Data from: Temperature drives Zika virus transmission: evidence from empirical and mathematical models

Temperature is a strong driver of vector-borne disease transmission. Yet,
for emerging arboviruses we lack fundamental knowledge on the relationship
between transmission and temperature. Current models rely on the untested
assumption that Zika virus responds similarly to dengue virus, potentially
limiting our ability to accurately predict the spread of Zika. We
conducted experiments to estimate the thermal performance of Zika virus
(ZIKV) in field-derived Aedes aegypti across eight constant temperatures.
We observed strong, unimodal effects of temperature on vector competence,
extrinsic incubation period, and mosquito survival. We used thermal
responses of these traits to update an existing temperature-dependent
model to infer temperature effects on ZIKV transmission. ZIKV transmission
was optimized at 29oC, and had a thermal range of 22.7oC - 34.7oC. Thus,
as temperatures move toward the predicted thermal optimum (29oC) due to
climate change, urbanization, or seasonally, Zika could expand north and
into longer seasons. In contrast, areas that are near the thermal optimum
were predicted to experience a decrease in overall environmental
suitability. We also demonstrate that the predicted thermal minimum for
Zika transmission is 5oC warmer than that of dengue, and current global
estimates on the environmental suitability for Zika are greatly
over-predicting its possible range.

温度是媒介传播疾病传播的关键驱动因子。然而，针对新兴虫媒病毒（arbovirus），我们目前仍缺乏关于其传播与温度之间关联的基础认知。现有模型均基于一个未经验证的假设：寨卡病毒（Zika virus）与登革病毒的温度响应模式高度相似，这一假设可能限制了我们精准预测寨卡病毒传播范围的能力。我们开展了相关实验，以估算寨卡病毒（ZIKV）在野外来源的埃及伊蚊（Aedes aegypti）体内，在8种恒定温度下的热性能表现。研究发现，温度对媒介效能（vector competence）、外潜伏期（extrinsic incubation period）以及蚊子存活率均存在显著的单峰效应。我们基于上述性状的热响应特征，对已有的温度依赖模型进行更新，以此推断温度对寨卡病毒传播的影响。寨卡病毒的传播在29℃时达到最优，其适宜温度区间为22.7℃至34.7℃。因此，随着气候变化、城市化进程或季节波动导致气温向预测的热最适点（29℃）趋近，寨卡病毒的传播范围可能向北扩张，且适宜传播的季节也将延长。与之相反，原本处于热最适点附近的区域，其整体环境适宜性预计将出现下降。我们还证实，寨卡病毒传播的预测热下限较登革病毒高出5℃，而当前全球范围内对寨卡病毒环境适宜性的评估，大幅高估了其潜在传播范围。