Development policy affects coastal flood exposure in China more than sea-level rise

This repository contains supplementary code and data for manuscript "Development policy affects coastal flood exposure in China more than sea-level rise".Effective coastal exposure assessments are crucial for adaptively managing threats from sea-level rise (SLR). Despite recent advances, global and regional assessments are constrained by omitting critical factors like land-use change, failing to disaggregate potential impacts by land uses and oversimplifying land subsidence. This study addresses these gaps by developing context-specific scenarios based on a comprehensive analysis of Chinese coastal development policies to 2100. We integrate high-resolution simulations of population and land system changes with inundation exposure assessments that incorporate SLR, land subsidence, tides, and storm surges, offering a more nuanced understanding of coastal risks. Across our plausible set of downscaled SSP-RCP scenarios, policy decisions have a bigger effect on what is exposed to coastal flooding in 2100 than the magnitude of SLR. Hence, coastal policy decisions significantly influence coastal risk and adaptation needs to 2100, demonstrating significant national and sub-national agency to manage coastal risk with a range of policies.

本仓库包含论文"Development policy affects coastal flood exposure in China more than sea-level rise"的补充代码与配套数据集。有效的海岸暴露评估对于自适应管控海平面上升（sea-level rise, SLR）带来的各类威胁至关重要。尽管当前相关研究已取得进展，但全球与区域层面的暴露评估仍存在诸多局限：诸如忽略土地利用变化这类关键影响因素、未能按土地利用类型拆解潜在影响，且对地面沉降的处理过于简化。本研究针对上述不足，通过对截至2100年的中国沿海发展政策开展全面分析，构建了契合本土情境的情景方案。本研究将人口与土地系统变化的高分辨率模拟结果，与纳入海平面上升、地面沉降、潮汐与风暴潮因素的淹没暴露评估相结合，从而实现对海岸风险更为细致深入的认知。在我们构建的一系列合理降尺度后的共享社会经济路径-典型浓度路径（Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, SSP-Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP）情景中，相较于海平面上升的幅度，政策决策对2100年沿海洪涝暴露区域的影响更为显著。因此，截至2100年，沿海政策决策对海岸风险与适应需求均具有显著影响，这表明国家与次国家级层面可通过一系列政策工具有效管控海岸风险。