基于供需格局的京津冀地区农业类型分区及高品质基地布局

[Objective] Optimizing agricultural production patterns and improving the supply-demand system of agricultural products are essential measures for practicing the greater food approach and advancing high-quality agricultural development. [Methods] Taking the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region as the study area, this study adopted a hierarchical analytical framework of “supply-demand pattern analysis—agricultural type zoning—layout of high-quality agricultural bases”. The spatiotemporal patterns of supply and demand of seven major categories of agricultural products (grains, vegetables, fruits, meat, eggs, dairy, and aquatic products) from 2015 to 2022 were analyzed. Multivariate clustering analysis was employed to delineate agricultural type zones. Subsequently, an integrated layout plan for high-quality agricultural bases was proposed. [Results] (1) From 2015 to 2022, the supply-demand patterns of agricultural products in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region exhibited the characteristic of “overall surplus with localized shortages”. Grains, vegetables, and dairy were in a state of high surplus. Meat and eggs evolved from a state of high surplus to surplus. Fruits and aquatic products shifted from a state of surplus to basic balance. The self-sufficiency capacity of agricultural products in Beijing and Tianjin was generally insufficient. (2) The agricultural types in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region could be divided into 2 first-level zones and 9 second-level zones, with differences in agricultural development potential, constraints, and dominant advantageous agricultural products among different zones. (3) The layout plan for high-quality agricultural bases consisted of production bases for seven categories of high-quality agricultural products: grains, vegetables, fruits, meat, eggs, dairy, and aquatic products. These bases were primarily distributed in the piedmont plains of the Taihang Mountains and Yanshan Mountains, as well as in the border areas of Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei. Additionally, targeted key tasks for the construction of different types of bases were proposed. [Conclusion] The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region faces the dual risks of supply-demand imbalance and spatial mismatch of agricultural products. Coordinating the production space of multiple agricultural products and integrating the layout of high-quality agricultural bases are crucial approaches to ensuring regional food security. The findings provide guidance and insights for the coordinated layout of modern urban agriculture in other urban agglomeration regions in China.