Femoral fractures in elderly Brazilians: a spatial and temporal analysis from 2008 to 2012

Fractures in the elderly (≥ 60 years) have a major public health impact and take a heavy social and economic toll. This article aimed to describe spatial and time trends in femoral fractures among elderly men and women in all regions of Brazil. Bayesian descriptive analyses of spatial and time series were performed on data obtained from the Hospital Information System of the Brazilian Unified National Health System, using Poisson regression for femoral fractures in individuals 60 years of age or older from 2008 to 2012. There were more than 181,000 femoral fractures during this period, predominantly in women, without important spatial correlations or temporal differences. Despite the lack of temporal and spatial correlations, the number of femoral fractures in elderly Brazilians was high, with heavy financial and social costs. Public health policies are urgently needed to control predisposing factors for femoral fractures in elderly Brazilians.

老年人群（≥60岁）骨折会对公共卫生造成严重影响，并带来沉重的社会与经济负担。本研究旨在描述巴西全国各地区老年男性与女性股骨骨折（femoral fractures）的时空流行趋势。研究依托巴西统一国家卫生系统（Brazilian Unified National Health System）医院信息系统（Hospital Information System）获取的数据集，针对2008年至2012年间60岁及以上人群的股骨骨折数据开展贝叶斯时空序列描述性分析，并采用泊松回归（Poisson regression）进行统计建模。2008至2012年间，巴西老年人群股骨骨折病例累计超过18.1万例，以女性患者居多，未观察到显著的空间相关性或时间差异。尽管未发现明确的时空关联，但巴西老年人群股骨骨折的发病规模仍居高不下，造成了沉重的经济与社会负担。亟需制定公共卫生政策，以管控巴西老年人群股骨骨折的易感危险因素。