The Mobile Alternative to Banking: Patterns of Financial Transactions in Emerging Countries

This paper explores patterns of financial transactions at the individual level in order to establish the effects of mobile money’s usage in a variety of country case examples. Data from the Financial Inclusion Insights program was analyzed for Bangladesh, India, Kenya, Nigeria, Pakistan, Tanzania, and Uganda, to establish differences between individuals who use mobile money services and their non-user counterparts. This analysis builds on previous research into the household level effects of the widely popular M-PESA services in Kenya to see if financial transaction patterns can be replicated in other country data. Contrary to previous literature, m-money usership was not a consistent predictor of transaction frequency and transaction distance for the country cases where data was available. To examine m-money’s potential as a complement or substitute to formal banking, usage frequency of bank account services was regressed on m-money usership, which was interacted with personal bank account ownership. Findings suggest that m-money encouraged bank account usage in the country samples where m-money was less prevalent overall, and discouraged bank account usage in the country samples where it was more prevalent. Overall, this study finds considerable difference in the effects of mobile money by country, as well as discrepant effects when interacted with bank account ownership.

本研究聚焦个体层面的金融交易模式，旨在明确移动货币（mobile money）在多国案例场景中的应用效应。本研究针对孟加拉国、印度、肯尼亚、尼日利亚、巴基斯坦、坦桑尼亚及乌干达的金融普惠洞察项目（Financial Inclusion Insights program）数据展开分析，对比使用移动货币服务的个体与未使用该服务的群体之间的差异。本分析基于既往针对肯尼亚广受欢迎的M-PESA服务开展的家庭层面效应研究，旨在验证此类金融交易模式是否可在其他国家的数据集内复现。与既往研究文献相悖的是，在可获取数据的国家案例中，移动货币使用情况并非交易频率与交易距离的稳定预测因子。为探究移动货币作为正规银行服务补充或替代方案的潜力，本研究以个人银行账户持有情况作为交互项，将银行账户服务使用频率对移动货币使用情况进行回归分析。研究结果显示，在移动货币整体普及率较低的国家样本中，移动货币可促进银行账户使用行为；而在移动货币整体普及率较高的国家样本中，其则会抑制银行账户使用行为。总体而言，本研究发现移动货币的应用效应因国家存在显著差异，且在与个人银行账户持有情况产生交互作用时，其效应也存在不一致性。