Climate — Maximum temperature

Projections of maximum temperature are calculated by the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) in cooperation with the Norwegian Klimservice Centre (KSS). The results are documented in the report Climate in Norway 2100 (Hanssen-Bauer et al., 2015), available at https://klimaservicesenter.no/. The WMS service Klimagrid contains 11 layers for atmosphere and hydrology: Number of days with 0 °C passes Number of days a year with snow on the ground Maximum amount of snow Number of days per year with snow depth over 30 cm Depreciation Medium run-off Index of dehydration in soil (mark water deficit) Growing season Mean temperature Maximum temperature Minimum temperature The maps are presented as the 30-year average for three periods: 1971-2000, 2031–2060 and 2071–2100. The links below refer to the reference period, but there are also layers showing changes to the middle and end of the century. The reference period shows absolute values for 1971-2000, while the two projection periods, 2031–2060 and 2071–2100, show changes relative to the reference period (e.g. the average of 2071–2100 minus the 1971-2000 average). Future periods show expected changes in a medium emission scenario, RCP4.5 and high emission scenario, RCP8.5. Due to systematic biases in the results of GCM/RCM models, and because these have much coarser resolution than power models, a post-processing is required to achieve plausible time series for use in local efficacy studies. The method is described in detail in NVE report 59-2016 (Wong et al., 2016). In short, an empirical quantilmapping method (EQM) is used to bias-adjust Euro-CORDEX simulations to Norway, by first re-griding to 1 x 1 km and by bias-adjusting against lateorge version 1.1 as observed data, for each grid cell. References: Hanssen-Bauer, I., E.J.Førland, I.Haddeland, H.Hisdal, S.Mayer, A.Nesje, J.E.Ø.Nilsen, S.Sandven, A.B.Sandø, A.Sorteberg and B.Ådlandsvik, 2015: Climate in Norway 2100 — Knowledge basis for climate adaptation updated in 2015. Norwegian Climate Service Centre, NCCS Report 2/2015 203pp. ISSN: 2387-3027 https://klimaservicesenter.no/kss/rapporter/kin2100 Wong, W., Haddeland, I., Lawrence, D., and Beldring, S. (2016). Gridded 1x1 km climate and Hydrological projections for Norway. NVE Report No. 59, Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate, Oslo, Norway. https://publikasjoner.nve.no/rapport/2016/rapport2016_59.pdf最高气温的预估数据由挪威水资源与能源管理局（Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate, NVE）与挪威气候服务中心（Norwegian Klimservice Centre, KSS）联合计算得出。该结果已收录于《挪威2100年气候》（Hanssen-Bauer等，2015）报告，可通过https://klimaservicesenter.no/获取。 WMS服务Klimagrid包含11个大气与水文相关图层： 1. 日气温突破0℃的天数 2. 年积雪日数 3. 最大积雪量 4. 年积雪深度超过30厘米的天数 5. 损耗量 6. 中等径流量 7. 土壤脱水指数（土壤水分亏缺量） 8. 生长季长度 9. 平均气温 10. 最高气温 11. 最低气温 各图层对应的空间分布图均以30年平均值的形式呈现，涵盖三个时段：1971-2000年、2031-2060年以及2071-2100年。下方链接对应基准时段，同时另有图层展示本世纪中期与末期的气候变化情况。基准时段（1971-2000年）呈现的是绝对数值，而2031-2060年、2071-2100年两个预估时段则展示相较于基准时段的变化量（例如2071-2100年的平均值减去1971-2000年的平均值）。未来时段的数据展示了中等排放情景RCP4.5与高排放情景RCP8.5下的预期气候变化幅度。 由于全球气候模式（GCM）与区域气候模式（RCM）的结果存在系统性偏差，且其分辨率远低于动力降尺度模型，因此需要进行后处理以生成适用于局地效能研究的合理时间序列。该方法的详细说明可参见NVE报告59-2016（Wong等，2016）。简言之，研究采用经验分位数映射法（EQM）对挪威区域的Euro-CORDEX模拟结果进行偏差校正：首先将数据重网格化至1×1公里分辨率，再以每个网格单元的观测数据集Lateorge版本1.1作为参考进行偏差校正。 ### 参考文献 1. Hanssen-Bauer, I., E.J. Førland, I. Haddeland, H. Hisdal, S. Mayer, A. Nesje, J.E. Ø. Nilsen, S. Sandven, A.B. Sandø, A. Sorteberg & B. Ådlandsvik, 2015: 《挪威2100年气候——2015年更新的气候适应知识基础》，挪威气候服务中心，NCCS报告2/2015，共203页，ISSN: 2387-3027，可访问https://klimaservicesenter.no/kss/rapporter/kin2100获取。 2. Wong, W., Haddeland, I., Lawrence, D. & Beldring, S. (2016): 《挪威1×1公里网格化气候与水文预估数据》，NVE报告第59号，挪威水资源与能源管理局，挪威奥斯陆，可访问https://publikasjoner.nve.no/rapport/2016/rapport2016_59.pdf获取。